From Uncertainty to Mastery: How SMEs Should Prepare for Currency & Tariff Shocks in 2025

Globalization offers opportunities but exposes French SMEs to unpredictable shocks. In 2025, tariff changes, currency volatility, and supply chain disruptions directly threaten profitability. Anticipating these risks becomes a strategic imperative. Here's how an external Chief Financial Officer can transform this volatility into competitive advantage.

1. Tariffs: The Invisible Tax on Your Margins

New customs duties can disrupt your cost structure overnight. Even a minimal increase can significantly reduce your margins.

Real case: A French chocolate manufacturer importing cocoa faces a 15% European tariff in 2025, reducing gross margin by 4 to 5 points.

Reference: In 2018, US tariffs on European steel and aluminum forced Vallourec to rapidly restructure its contracts.

Preventive actions: Prioritize negotiating long-term supplier contracts, model different tariff scenarios to anticipate price impact, and explore alternative sourcing to reduce dependency.

2. Currency Volatility: The Silent Risk

USD/EUR fluctuations can wipe out your planned profits within weeks.

Example: A French tech SME billing US clients in dollars risks 10% revenue loss if the euro strengthens abruptly.

Reference: Airbus reported a negative impact of €1.3 billion in 2020 related to FX volatility.

Protection strategies: Implement natural hedges and use simple instruments like forward contracts or options. Systematically integrate FX sensitivity into your cash flow forecasts to anticipate variations.

3. Supply Chain Disruptions: The Domino Effect

Geopolitical instability or strikes can paralyze your operations in cascade.

Illustration: A French SME importing electronics suffers a three-week port strike, forcing costly air freight alternatives.

Reference: The 2021 Suez Canal blockage halted Renault and Peugeot production.

Preventive measures: Supplier diversification constitutes your first line of defense. Maintain safety stock appropriate to your sector and integrate potential disruption costs into your strategic planning.

4. The CFO's Toolkit

The modern finance director's arsenal combines rolling forecasts over 8-12 weeks for optimal cash visibility, scenario planning with optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic models, and technological solutions like Kyriba or Anaplan for real-time impact tracking. Centralized dashboards enable effective management of all key indicators.

5. Why SMEs Need a Part-Time CFO

An external finance director brings that strategic vision and operational rigor often lacking in growing SMEs. They precisely identify your exposure to tariff, currency, and logistics risks, design mitigation strategies adapted to your budget and sector, while ensuring informed decisions based on reliable data rather than intuition.

In Conclusion

2025 promises turbulence. Tariff shocks, monetary variations, and supply chain disruptions will test SME resilience. With structured planning, appropriate hedging strategies, and CFO expertise, uncertainty can become mastery, transforming volatility into competitive advantage.

Looking to transform economic uncertainty into competitive advantage? Let's discuss your company's specific challenges and discover together how to structure your financial approach for 2025.

A CFO to navigate financial turns